ANTALYA, November 9, 2026 — The WMO climate report for 2026, released as the COP31 climate conference opened in Türkiye puts the planet’s average surface temperature for January to September at about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. The agency says 2026 is on course to rank among the four warmest years in records stretching back more than a century, while a strengthening El Niño could add further heat and increase the risk of extreme weather well into 2027.
The report is not a final full-year temperature estimate, and its 1.47°C figure is not the same measurement as the Paris Agreement’s long-term 1.5°C goal. It is nevertheless a warning about how little room remains for delay: the four years from 2023 through 2026 are expected to be the four warmest on record, and the climate system is accumulating heat across the atmosphere, oceans, ice and land.
The WMO’s State of the Climate Update for COP31 draws on nine internationally recognised temperature datasets. Its January–September estimate is 1.47°C, with an uncertainty range of about 0.13°C. That reading is close to the annual averages already recorded in 2023 and 2025, and below the 2024 record of 1.55°C. The agency expects the 2026 annual figure to rise as the warming influence of El Niño becomes more pronounced in the final months of the year.
The longer sequence matters more than any single ranking. The WMO says the past 12 years, from 2015 to 2026, are set to be the warmest 12-year period in the observational record. The last four years occupy the top four positions. Temporary cooling from La Niña conditions at the beginning of 2026 gave way to warming as El Niño developed in the Pacific from August.
A single calendar year above 1.5°C does not by itself mean that the Paris Agreement threshold has been permanently crossed. The agreement’s temperature goal is assessed over a longer period, rather than by treating one unusually warm year as a final verdict. But repeated annual readings close to or above that level show how quickly the remaining carbon budget is being used and how much harder it will be to keep long-term warming within the agreed limit.
The report’s most consequential finding may be the growing imbalance between the energy Earth receives from the Sun and the energy it releases back into space. The WMO says this imbalance reached its highest level since monitoring began. Greenhouse gases trap more outgoing heat, and the excess energy is being stored across the climate system rather than disappearing when a particular heatwave or storm ends.
The oceans absorb about 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Measurements show that ocean heat content reached a record in 2025, while preliminary observations for January to July 2026 point to another record. The WMO says 2026 is on track to be the tenth consecutive year of record ocean warmth. That stored heat can influence sea-surface temperatures, storm intensity, marine ecosystems and the amount of energy available to fuel extreme weather.
Global mean sea level also reached its highest point in the satellite record, which began in 1993. Sea-level rise is driven by the expansion of warming seawater and by the loss of land ice. It raises the baseline on which storm surges and coastal flooding occur, increasing risks for low-lying communities, ports, roads, drainage systems and freshwater supplies.
The cryosphere is under pressure as well. Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual maximum in the satellite era in 2026, while the Arctic maximum was the lowest or second-lowest. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatonnes of ice in 2025, equivalent to roughly one millimetre of global sea-level rise. It was the fourth consecutive year in which all 19 assessed glacier regions recorded mass loss. The effects are not limited to distant mountain ranges: glacier retreat changes the timing and reliability of water flows for downstream communities and can increase the risk of glacial-lake outburst floods.
The atmospheric greenhouse-gas figures explain why the system continues to accumulate heat. Carbon dioxide averaged about 426.8 parts per million in 2025, 53% above the pre-industrial level. Methane and nitrous oxide also reached new highs. These gases remain in the atmosphere for different lengths of time, but together they strengthen the heat-trapping effect that underlies the observed changes in temperature, oceans and ice.
El Niño is a natural pattern of ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific. It shifts heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and changes rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions. It does not create the underlying greenhouse warming, but it can add a temporary boost to global average temperatures and alter the likelihood of drought, intense rainfall and heat in places already exposed to climate stress.
The WMO says El Niño has intensified since August and is expected to reach very strong levels by December. Its influence is likely to continue into early 2027. The agency cautions that the strongest impacts on annual global temperatures often arrive in the year after the event develops, so the warming signal may persist even after the current calendar year ends.
The regional effects are not uniform. El Niño is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over parts of South Asia, but it does not determine the outcome of any one Indian monsoon. Other ocean patterns, atmospheric circulation, land temperatures and short-term weather systems also matter. India’s next seasonal outlook will need to be assessed when the India Meteorological Department releases it; the WMO report is a risk signal, not a forecast that a particular district or crop will face drought.
For governments and households, the practical concern is the combination of higher background temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Heat can raise electricity demand for cooling, reduce outdoor labour productivity and worsen health risks for people without reliable access to shelter or water. Dry spells can put pressure on reservoirs, groundwater and crop yields, while intense rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems and damage roads, homes and public infrastructure.
The WMO released the update on the opening day of COP31 in Antalya, placing the latest measurements before negotiators as they begin discussions on emissions, adaptation, climate finance and the energy transition. The report is a scientific assessment, not a negotiating text, but it sharpens the questions governments will face: how quickly emissions can fall, how exposed communities can be protected and how the cost of climate impacts should be shared.
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The pressure is especially acute for countries that have contributed relatively little to cumulative greenhouse-gas emissions but face severe heat, floods, drought and coastal risk. Adaptation requires more than emergency response. It includes reliable weather observations, early-warning systems, heat-health plans, resilient electricity networks, flood management, drought planning and the ability of local authorities to act on forecasts.
The WMO has again stressed the value of sustained observations and forecasting. A warning is useful only when it reaches people in time and is connected to practical action. That means investment in weather stations, satellites, data-sharing, public communication and local emergency services. It also means ensuring that warnings reach farmers, informal workers, coastal communities and people living in settlements where a small amount of flooding can have severe consequences.
Energy policy will be another test. Electrification can reduce dependence on fossil fuels in transport, buildings and industry, but it delivers climate benefits only when the power system itself becomes cleaner. Rapid growth in electricity demand from data centres, manufacturing and cooling will require grids, storage, renewable generation and reliable transmission. If new demand is met mainly by coal or gas, the transition risks locking in emissions even as more activities become electric.
Climate finance is therefore not a side issue. Developing countries need predictable funding to build infrastructure that can withstand heat, flooding and water stress, while also expanding access to clean energy. Grants, concessional finance, private investment and technology partnerships have different roles; treating all of them as interchangeable can obscure whether the most vulnerable communities receive support they can actually use.
India faces a broad set of climate risks that cut across health, agriculture, energy, transport and urban planning. Longer and more intense heat episodes can raise the risk of heatstroke and cardiovascular stress, particularly for older people, children, outdoor workers and households in poorly ventilated homes. Higher temperatures also increase cooling demand, placing pressure on electricity distribution networks during peak hours.
Rainfall risk is more complex than a simple El Niño forecast. A weaker seasonal total can coexist with intense local downpours, and the timing of rain can matter as much as the total. Farmers need timely information about sowing windows, irrigation and crop choices; cities need drainage systems designed for short, heavy bursts of rainfall as well as longer wet spells. Reservoir operators and water utilities need to plan for both scarcity and sudden inflows.
Coastal districts face a separate set of pressures as sea levels rise and marine heat affects fisheries and coastal ecosystems. Ports, roads, power stations and industrial facilities built close to the shoreline need risk assessments that account for future sea levels rather than only historical flood marks. The cost of strengthening infrastructure before damage occurs is often lower than rebuilding after repeated failures.
The report also has implications for public health planning. Heat action plans, cooling spaces, drinking-water access, workplace protections and clear hospital protocols can reduce deaths during extreme temperatures. These measures require coordination between meteorological agencies, health departments, local governments and employers. The same principle applies to floods and storms: forecasts must be translated into evacuation decisions, transport arrangements and support for people who cannot move without assistance.
The next few months will show how strongly El Niño develops, whether global temperatures rise further in the final quarter of 2026 and how ocean and sea-level indicators respond. The WMO’s report is based on data available through September for several indicators, so later observations will be needed to establish the full-year picture. A strong El Niño would add to risks already created by long-term warming, but it would not change the underlying need to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
At COP31, the test will be whether governments turn the evidence into measurable commitments on emissions, adaptation and finance. Announcements alone will not reduce exposure. The outcome will be judged by whether clean-energy investment accelerates, whether vulnerable communities gain access to early warnings and resilient services, and whether funding reaches the places where climate impacts are already disrupting livelihoods.
The science does not suggest that every region will experience the same weather in the same way. It does show that the background conditions are changing, the ocean is storing more heat, ice is being lost and the atmosphere is holding record concentrations of greenhouse gases. That combination makes extremes more damaging and raises the cost of waiting for certainty before acting.
SOURCE:
World Meteorological Organization; The Guardian; Le Monde.