NEW DELHI, October 31, 2026: A depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to forecast heavy rain, rough seas and strong winds early next week. The system has not yet become a cyclonic storm, and the timing and location of any eventual landfall remain subject to change.
In its press release issued at 2:25 p.m. IST on Saturday, the IMD said a well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar region was likely to concentrate into a depression within six hours. It forecast further intensification into a cyclonic storm during the following 24 hours, with the system moving towards the west-central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the evening of November 2.
Also read: IMD Warns of Heavy Rain Across Several States as New Bay of Bengal System Develops
The IMD’s subsequent 3 p.m. bulletin, as reported by The Economic Times, said the system had concentrated into a depression at 11:30 a.m. on October 31. It was located about 330 km west-southwest of Sri Vijayapuram in the Andaman Islands and 300 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar. The department expected it to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 12 hours, followed by a possible cyclonic-storm stage during the subsequent 12 hours.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told news agencies that the possible storm could bring sustained winds of 80-90 kmph, with occasional gusts reaching 100 kmph. He said it may make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on the morning of Tuesday, November 3. This is a forecast scenario, not confirmation that landfall will occur at a particular location or time.
The distinction between the system reaching waters near the coast and making landfall is important. The IMD’s bulletin places it near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the evening of November 2, while the director general’s reported assessment points to a possible crossing the following morning. Forecasts can be revised as the system’s centre, wind field and movement become clearer.
Also read: Cyclone Arnab Puts 7.16 Lakh Hectares of Crops at Risk in Andhra Pradesh
The IMD’s October 31 press release warns of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on November 2, followed by isolated very heavy rainfall on November 3. Isolated very heavy rain is also forecast over Rayalaseema on November 2 and 3, and over Odisha on November 3 and 4. The forecast covers specific days and regions; it does not mean every district will receive the same amount of rain.
Along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast, winds are forecast to strengthen from November 1 evening. The bulletin says they could reach gale-force speeds of 65-75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, by November 2 afternoon, and 80-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, from the evening of November 2 through the forenoon of November 3. Sea conditions are expected to deteriorate, with high seas forecast off the coast during part of this period.
The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into specified parts of the Bay of Bengal and along the Andhra Pradesh coast during the warning periods. Its bulletin advises against fishing off the Andhra coast from the morning of November 2 until the afternoon of November 4. Fishermen should follow the latest local port and marine advisories rather than rely on an earlier forecast.
The new system is developing only days after Cyclone Arnab crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28. Districts in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are still dealing with the storm’s effects, including damage to crops and electricity infrastructure. The latest forecast therefore creates a fresh planning concern for communities that may still be restoring homes, farms, roads and local services.
The IMD’s current wind estimate is lower than the peak landfall winds reported for Arnab, but that comparison should not be used to dismiss the new warning. Heavy rainfall can cause flooding and waterlogging even when wind speeds are lower, particularly where drainage systems, fields or local infrastructure have not fully recovered. The eventual impact will depend on the system’s track, intensity, rainfall distribution and how quickly it moves inland.
Also read: Andhra Pradesh Power Utilities Prepare for Bay of Bengal Storm
Coastal residents should monitor district-level rainfall and wind warnings, evacuation instructions and updates from local administrations. People in low-lying areas should pay attention to waterlogging and drainage advisories. Farmers may need to protect harvested produce and arrange field drainage where local agricultural departments issue such guidance.
Authorities and electricity utilities will need to track the forecast as it changes, particularly in districts affected by Arnab. Residents should keep away from fallen power lines and damaged electrical equipment, avoid crossing flooded roads and follow official instructions on travel or movement near the coast. The IMD’s district-wise warning map and national weather bulletins should take precedence over older summaries or social-media posts.
At this stage, the key indicators are whether the depression becomes a deep depression, when it reaches cyclonic-storm intensity, and whether its projected track or coastal impact changes. The IMD has said it will issue further updates as the system evolves. No final landfall point has been established in the bulletin reviewed for this report.