ANTALYA, November 10, 2026 — Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall by just 0.4% this year, but the small decline is not a clear sign that the world has reached an emissions peak. The Global Carbon Budget 2026 estimates that fossil-fuel emissions will total about 38.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2026, while emissions from land-use change are expected to lift total human-caused carbon dioxide output to 43.3 billion tonnes.
The annual assessment, released as climate negotiations continue at COP31 in Antalya, also projects a 4.4% rise in India’s fossil-fuel emissions. That increase is above the country’s average annual growth of about 3.5% over the previous decade and contrasts with projected declines in China, the United States and the European Union.
The Global Carbon Project’s 21st annual budget brings together estimates of emissions from coal, oil and gas with calculations of how much carbon is absorbed by forests, soils and the oceans. The 2026 figures are preliminary projections based on data available so far, not a final accounting of the year. The underlying paper was posted in Earth System Science Data on November 10 and is currently under review, a status that matters when interpreting the precision of the estimates.
The projected 0.4% fall in fossil-fuel emissions is small enough to be statistically indistinguishable from no change, according to researchers and outside analysts. The estimate has an uncertainty range that includes a modest increase as well as a decline. It therefore describes a possible flattening in emissions rather than a confirmed turning point. The distinction is important because global fossil emissions reached a record in 2025 after rising 1.2% from the previous year.
The fuel mix is moving in different directions. Oil-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to fall by 1.9% in 2026, while natural-gas emissions are projected to decline by 0.3%. Coal emissions, by contrast, are forecast to rise by 0.6%. The overall fossil-fuel figure is therefore being pulled down by lower oil use even as coal remains a major source of power and industrial emissions.
Researchers link much of the oil decline to the energy shock created by the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran. Disruption to supplies and higher prices have encouraged households and businesses to use less fuel, conserve energy and consider alternatives. The effect is not the same as a planned climate transition: a reduction caused by expensive or unavailable fuel can reverse if supply conditions change or prices fall.
The report also points to the growing contribution of solar, wind power and electric vehicles. These technologies are meeting roughly two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand, limiting the emissions that would otherwise have accompanied rising consumption. The finding shows that clean-energy deployment is changing the global energy balance, but it does not yet mean demand for fossil fuels is falling consistently across every region or sector.
The scientists estimate that solar and wind power avoided about 4.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, with the avoided amount projected to reach around 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026. Those are counterfactual estimates: they compare the energy produced by clean technologies with the fossil generation that might otherwise have been needed. They should not be read as a direct measurement of emissions removed from the atmosphere.
India is expected to record a 4.4% increase in fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions this year, according to the budget. The projection reflects continued growth in energy demand and the role of coal in meeting that demand. It is higher than the country’s average annual emissions growth over the past decade, even though oil use is expected to ease slightly.
The Indian figure needs to be read alongside the country’s development needs. Electricity consumption is rising as households gain access to appliances, cities expand, manufacturing grows and businesses use more energy-intensive equipment. Coal-fired power stations remain an important source of reliable electricity, particularly when demand is high or rainfall-dependent hydropower weakens. A rise in emissions therefore reflects both the scale of energy demand and the pace at which lower-carbon supply can replace fossil generation.
The challenge is not simply to add more renewable capacity. Solar and wind output varies with weather and time of day, while factories, transport networks and homes need power when it is required. Transmission lines, storage, flexible demand, better forecasting and the ability to move electricity between regions all influence how much clean generation can displace coal. Without those supporting systems, new renewable capacity can grow while fossil-fuel generation remains high during periods of peak demand.
India’s emissions trend also has implications for energy security. A power system that depends heavily on imported oil and gas can be exposed to price shocks, while coal dependence carries its own costs through air pollution, water use, mining impacts and carbon emissions. Domestic renewable resources can reduce some of those vulnerabilities, but the transition requires investment in grids, storage, distribution companies and reliable backup capacity.
Also read: India’s Coal Generation Rises 25.7% as Hydropower Falls
China, the world’s largest national source of fossil carbon dioxide emissions, is projected to record a 0.9% decline in 2026. The United States is forecast to fall by 1.3%, while the European Union is expected to register a decline of about 1.5%. These country estimates do not mean that the underlying economies have stopped growing or that all sectors are reducing emissions. They reflect changes in the energy mix, fuel use, economic activity and other factors during the year.
China’s projection is particularly important because it accounts for a large share of global fossil emissions and has also become the largest market for many clean-energy technologies. Rapid deployment of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles has helped limit emissions growth. At the same time, the country continues to use substantial amounts of coal and has not yet demonstrated that a one-year decline will become a sustained downward trend.
The United States’ projected reduction is linked partly to lower coal use, while the European Union’s decline reflects a different combination of energy demand, generation and industrial activity. Comparing national totals without examining population, consumption, industrial structure and trade can obscure how responsibility for emissions is distributed. The Global Carbon Budget tracks the physical sources of carbon dioxide; it is not a ranking of climate ambition or fairness.
The most important qualification to the headline fossil-fuel decline is the rise in emissions from land-use change. When deforestation, forest degradation, peat fires and the conversion of land for agriculture are included, total global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase from about 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025 to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026.
The difference between fossil-fuel emissions and total emissions is not a technical footnote. Forests and other ecosystems store carbon that can be released when land is cleared, burned or drained. A country can reduce emissions from power generation while losing part of that gain through forest loss or fires. Conversely, protecting and restoring ecosystems can strengthen the land sink, although the amount of carbon absorbed varies with weather, land management and ecological conditions.
The budget estimates land-use emissions using models and land-use data, and the researchers acknowledge that this component carries substantial uncertainty. Estimates of forest loss, regrowth and carbon uptake can differ between methods. The paper also identifies uncertainties in the amount of carbon absorbed by land and ocean systems. Those limitations do not make the figures unusable; they show why the report provides ranges and why annual changes should be interpreted with care.
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to reach about 427.7 parts per million in 2026, around 54% above the pre-industrial level of roughly 278 parts per million. Concentration is the result of cumulative emissions minus the carbon absorbed by land and oceans. It continues to rise even when annual emissions flatten because the atmosphere retains a large share of carbon released over many decades.
The remaining carbon budget for limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C is estimated at about 150 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. At current annual emission levels, that is less than four years of emissions. The figure is not a countdown to a single date when the world suddenly crosses a threshold; it is an estimate of the remaining amount compatible with a probability of limiting warming, and it carries uncertainty. But it illustrates how little room remains for delay.
Also read: WMO Warns 2026 Among Four Warmest Years as COP31 Opens in Türkiye
The 1.5°C goal is assessed over longer periods, not by treating one unusually warm year as a final verdict. Temporary overshoots are already being observed in annual temperature estimates, but the long-term climate outcome depends on cumulative greenhouse-gas emissions and the speed at which they fall. Every additional fraction of warming increases the risks from heat, heavy rainfall, drought, sea-level rise and ecosystem damage.
The budget’s findings arrive as governments discuss emissions cuts, adaptation and climate finance at COP31. They sharpen a practical question for negotiators: whether the expansion of clean technologies can move quickly enough to turn a temporary flattening into a durable decline. That requires more than installing generation capacity. It also requires modern electricity networks, storage, industrial efficiency, low-carbon transport, credible land protection and investment in technologies that can reduce emissions from sectors that are difficult to electrify.
Also read: UNEP Says Deep Emissions Cuts Needed to Return to 1.5°C by 2100
The next annual budget will be a test of whether the 2026 decline persists or proves to be a temporary response to high prices and supply disruption. Researchers will also need to assess how much of the land-use increase is confirmed once fuller data become available. A lasting peak would require several years of sustained reductions, not a single year in which oil use falls.
For India, the 4.4% projection underlines the importance of aligning energy security with cleaner power and industrial growth. For major emitters, the small global decline is a reminder that clean-energy expansion is beginning to alter the trajectory but has not yet displaced the scale of fossil-fuel use. The total emissions figure is still rising, and the remaining carbon budget is narrowing.